Fall 2006

Northcentral

The 2006 season in the Northcentral region will be remembered for its weather-induced crop yield extremes. Some growers in parts of Minnesota and Iowa are anticipating harvesting the highest corn yields of their farming careers this fall, while others in central South Dakota had fields of small grain that did not justify the cost of harvesting because of prolonged drought combined with record breaking heat. Throughout the Northcentral region there are have’s and have not’s relative to critical rains for crop development.

These extremes in crop production translate into extremes in residual nutrients from fertilizer application and mineralization of soil organic matter. This will be a year where soil testing for residual profile nitrate levels and other nutrients in the western part of the region and calculation of nutrient budgets from nutrients applied compared to nutrients removed over the entire region are likely to pay large dividends. Generalizations will have little value … it’s a year where each field needs site-specific consideration in making nutrient management plans for 2007.

Crops in the Northeast are generally performing well, though there have been areas of excess rain and challenging conditions for weed control and wheat harvest. Warm weather so far means that corn maturity is ahead of normal. Hopefully it will be drier at harvest. Soybeans are looking very good in much of the region. Good yields of wheat have been harvested, though rains and high humidity have had their effects on moisture, quality and protein levels.

Fertilizer sales were down considerably this year. As crops mature, look for signs of shortage. Excessive rains experienced in Atlantic Canada, Pennsylvania, New York, New England and other scattered areas may have exacerbated the deficiencies arising from rate reductions of nitrogen (N). For phosphorus (P) and potassium (K), rate reductions may not produce visible effects this year, but reductions in soil test levels can be expected if rates stay low for a number of years in sequence.

Soon forage plants will enter the critical fall growth period, during which they store the carbohydrates they need to survive the winter. Adequate K is essential for this carbohydrate storage. August is an excellent time to apply K fertilizers. Potassium is particularly likely to run short if previous harvests have been heavy. The amount to apply is an important decision. Make sure it's based on a recent soil test. It’s also helpful to look at the analysis results for K if you’ve sent forage from earlier cuts this year to the lab. Calculating a nutrient budget – nutrients removed by previous harvests minus the amounts supplied in manures and fertilizers – can also help determine the right amount to replace. For harvested cereals underseeded to forage, K should have been supplied at planting, but if it wasn't, applying as soon as possible after cereal harvest will ensure the seedlings develop into winter-hardy plants.

Winter wheat has performed well again in many parts of the region. For next year, assure yourself a good start by planning for the fertility needs of the crop to be seeded this fall. Nitrogen and P are important components of a starter to ensure a healthy stand. Wheat can be profitable, as well as an excellent soil builder in the rotation.

Manure applications following harvests of cereals and silage corn should be guided by soil tests and manure nutrient analysis. Rates should be appropriate to supply the soil's needs for P, K and organic matter. Avoid wasting N by ensuring a cover crop grows to absorb what is released from the manure.

Soil Testing from the Combine Window

As farmers start their harvesting operations in the northern Great Plains it is also a time when they can start doing some fall soil sample planning. While sitting in that combine the grower has an opportunity to identify uniquely different parts of the field when it comes to production. While some of these areas may be a reflection of growing season pest infestations, others will reflect differences in soil type. Being able to come back to these areas after harvest to collect a unique soil sample provides an opportunity to determine if there are unique nutrient deficiencies associated with the reduced production. So be sure and carry a handful of flags with you in the combine this fall, they will help you in fall soil sampling those problem areas in your field.

Drought conditions over most of the region this season seem to be relentless. Frankly, the general outlook for summer crops is, in a word, dismal. There are times when lack of water is simply the overriding limiting factor, and in most crops and areas in the region this seems to be the case this year. Although there are some pockets of reasonable yield potential for rainfed crops, and irrigated crops are for the most part in decent condition.

One never likes to be the bearer of negative information, but reality is reality. The latest Palmer Drought Index ending August 5, 2006 shows the vast majority of the six state region in some form of drought. The entire states of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska are in moderate to extreme drought. All of Texas is in the same condition except for the Coastal Bend region which is normal. New Mexico is a mixed bag, and central and eastern Colorado are in extreme to severe drought. Some of the consequences of this are large sell offs of cattle in some regions due to lack of forage, high hay prices from short supplies, and drying of ponds. Another noteworthy consequence is the estimated loss of a significant portion of the cotton crop in Texas, the nation’s largest cotton producing state. The following quote came from a recent Farm Press article ( Aug 7, 2006 ) “The cotton in the dryland acres north of Lubbock is now practically non-existent,” said Ricky Bearden, chairman of the Plains Cotton Growers Association. “We’re now at about 1 million failed acres out of 3.9 million planted or about 25%.”

This is a good time to consider the story of the two boys and the room full of horse manure… one saw it in the negative and the other as a certainty of a pony in his future. So what positive can we draw from all of this? Wheat prices are good… over $4.00/bu. Time for preparation of planting winter wheat is upon us and it’s got to rain sometime, so one would not want to “miss the boat” on what could be excellent profit potential in the coming year’s wheat crop. Make sure appropriate early wheat fertility is in place to take advantage of this potential. Remember that wheat is relatively responsive to P fertilizer and that early season P helps set ultimate yield potential. Soil test data, field history, and consultation with local professionals can help establish appropriate P rates.

We are fortunate, so far, that the Southeast region has not experienced a hurricane season like last year’s. Because of the heat and the drought, crop yields will be reduced in much of the region, especially where irrigation capabilities were limited – by water quantity or operating capital. The drought has been severe in Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, and parts of Missouri. Conditions have been less damaging in Kentucky and eastern North Carolina. Crop maturation is ahead of normal as a result of the warmer-than-normal weather.

Corn yields in the more southeastern portions of the region are expected to be down by more than 20 bu/A. Corn harvest is underway in Arkansas and Mississippi with the crop in mostly good condition, because the majority is irrigated.

Cotton yields are anticipated to be lower also, possibly by as much as 100 to 200 pounds of lint/A. In Alabama, the cotton is rated in mostly very poor to poor condition. Cotton bolls were opening in most states.

Peanut yields may be as much as 300 lbs/A lower than last year and comparable to 1995 yields in Georgia, while in Alabama yields are expected to be down by more than 800 lb/A from last year.

Hay yields will be lower than last year across the region. In some states, cattlemen were reducing their herd size. While recent rains have helped parts of the panhandle of Florida, forage production was lower because of the prolonged dry period, while conditions were rated as fair to good in other parts of the state.

Rice harvest has continuing in Louisiana (>40% of first harvest complete), while fields were being drained in Mississippi and Arkansas.

Citrus groves in Florida were being fertilized, irrigated and mowed.

Sorghum was completely headed in much of the region, and more than one-third of the crop is mature in Arkansas, while over two-thirds was mature in Louisiana..

Soybean yields, as with other crops will be lower this fall. Early maturity soybeans were being harvested in Mississippi. The majority of the soybeans in the region were rated as fair to good.

Tobacco harvest was continuing in the eastern states.

Based on conversations with a few seed and fertilizer dealers, some farmers in the Midsouth area are planning on increased soft red winter wheat plantings this fall.

Based on communications this summer, many farmers failed to lime their fields properly this past season. Reports of soil pH values below 4.5 were received too often. Farmers will need to lime their most acid fields this fall, or make decisions to abandon those fields because the pH is so low that returns to other inputs are greatly limited.

Fertilizer tonnages were expected to be down for the fiscal year (July 2005-June 2006) because of increased costs and farmer cut-backs. Preliminary data on tonnage consumption show that in Missouri the fertilizer tonnage from July 2005-June 2006 was 1,964,408 tons; reflecting a decline of more than 25,000 tons. Yet, in Arkansas...from July 2005 to May 2006...fertilizer tonnage consumption was 838,050 tons; an increase of over 3,000 tons compared to the same period the previous year.

Weather, weather, weather! In spite of our best efforts and planning, agriculture is vulnerable to many uncontrollable factors. The record-setting heat wave that rolled across the country this summer left a huge path of scorching destruction and losses in its wake.

In California, the nation's No. 1 agriculture and dairy producer, the temperature peaked over 110 degrees for many consecutive days in late July, killing 16,500 cows, 1 million chickens and turkeys perished and countless peaches, nectarines, nuts and melons were destroyed.

Milk production in California was down by over 20% during the heat wave as the record-setting heat killed thousands of dairy cows. The hot cows also ate less and produced less milk, even as farmers sprayed them with misters and fanned them down.

More than 60% of the United States is in drought or experiencing abnormally dry conditions this summer, according to Mark Svoboda, a climatologist for the National Drought Mitigation Center. Although the national drought stretches from Georgia to Arizona and north as far as Wisconsin, Minnesota and Montana- much of the west is managing to keep the irrigation water flowing and crops growing through the end of the season.

Recently released statistics showed the Fresno County in California was again the top-grossing agricultural county in the U.S…. a position it has maintained almost every year since 1954. With a gross agricultural income of over $4.6 billion, the top products in Fresno County were grapes, almonds, milk, tomatoes, and cattle.