Northcentral

Harvest in 2004 was marked by record-breaking yields for many crops in many areas of the Northcentral region. Nutrient management plans will need to be updated to account for the quantities of P and K removed by crop harvest this past season. Tables 1 – 4 show the most recently published USDA estimates for state average yields, the published removal rates (per harvested unit) for each state, calculated nutrient removal per acre, and change in yield and removal from 2003.

Range in estimated 2004 state average P removal (lb P2O5/A):
• alfalfa: 25 to 53
• corn: 46 to 77
• soybean: 26 to 43
• wheat: 26 to 39

Range in estimated 2004 state average K removal (lb K2O/A):
• alfalfa: 105 to 215
• corn: 34 to 54
• soybean: 46 to 74
• wheat: 14 to 23

Summary of yield and nutrient removal changes from 2003 to 2004:
• alfalfa up 5 to 17%
• corn up 5 to 17%
• soybean up 5 to 51%
• wheat declined in 4 states and increased in one: range was -10 to 9%

Table 1. Average state alfalfa yield per acre, P and K removal rates, state average P and K removal per acre, and yield and removal percent change from 2003.

Table 2. Average state corn yield per acre, P and K removal rates, state average P and K removal per acre, and yield and removal percent change from 2003.

Table 3. Average state soybean yield per acre, P and K removal rates, state average P and K removal per acre, and yield and removal percent change from 2003.

Table 4. Average state wheat yield per acre, P and K removal rates, state average P and K removal per acre, and yield and removal percent change from 2003.

References:
Bundy, L.G. 1998. Corn fertilization. A3340. Wisconsin State Coop. Ext. Serv., University of Wisconsin, Madison. (Available online with updates at http://cecommerce.uwex.edu/) (Verified 14 Jan. 2004).

Gerwing, J.R., R. Gelderman, and P. Fixen. 1985. Quantities of plant nutrients contained in crops. Ext. Extra 8009. South Dakota State Coop. Ext. Serv., South Dakota State Univ., Brookings.

Hoeft, R.G. and T.R. Peck. 2002. Soil testing and fertility. p. 91-131. In P. Picklesimer (ed.) Illinois Agronomy Handbook. 23rd ed. Illinois State Coop. Ext. Serv., Univ. of Illinois, Urbana. (Available online with updates at http://www.ag.uiuc.edu/iah/) (Verified 14 Jan. 2005).

Kelling, K.A. 2000. Alfalfa fertilization. A2448. Wisconsin State Coop. Ext. Serv., University of Wisconsin, Madison. (Available online with updates at http://cecommerce.uwex.edu/) (Verified 14 Jan. 2004).

Minnesota Dept. Agric. 1999. Useful nutrient management data. Minnesota Dept. Agric., St. Paul. (Available online with updates at http://www.mda.state.mn.us/pubs.htm) (Verified 14 Jan. 2005).

Sawyer, J.E., A.P. Mallarino, R. Killorn, and S.K. Barnhart. 2002. A general guide for crop nutrient and limestone recommendations in Iowa. PM 1688 Rev. Nov. 2002. Iowa State Coop. Ext. Serv., Iowa State Univ., Ames. (Available online with updates at http://www.extension.iastate.edu/) (Verified 14 Jan. 2005)

Vitosh, M.L., J.W. Johnson, and D.B. Mengel. 1995. Tri-state fertilizer recommendations for corn, soybeans, wheat & alfalfa. Ext. Bull. E-2567. Jul. 1995. Indiana State Coop. Ext. Serv., Purdue Univ., West Lafayette. (Available online with updates at http://www.agry.purdue.edu/ext/) (Verified 14 Jan. 2005).

USDA-NASS. 2005. Crop production 2004 summary. Jan. 2005. Cr Pr 2-1 (05). Available online with updates at http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/nassr/field/pcp-bban/) (Verified 14 Jan. 2005).

Corn and soybeans produced above average yields across the Northeast in 2004. Thus they removed larger amounts of P and K than usual. Producers would be well-advised to take into account the impact on soil test levels.

Corn grain yields set records in each of the following states and provinces except in Virginia, where the yield came in just one bushel below the record set in 2000.

Soybeans yielded at record levels in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, and came in above average in Michigan, Ontario, and Quebec. The near-record crop area in Ontario combined with the high yield to set a provincial production record.

Sound management of nutrients pays attention to replacing the amounts removed by crops, in order to maintain soil fertility at an optimum level. Low fertility soils may need more than the amount removed.

Managing K in the northern Great Plains region requires attention to soil testing and the weather. Many of the soils in this region are high in soil test K; in fact many of them are very high with 300+ ppm in the surface 6 in. of soil. However, the northern Great Plains also has some of the lowest K testing soils in North America, with levels in the 25 to 30 ppm range. As a result, it is critical that crop advisers get some evaluation by soil test analysis on the K levels of local soils.

Some farmers like to use starter K when seeding cereal crops in the northern Great Plains. In many cases, this application is being used on soils with high K soil test levels. While the application rate is often less than grain removal, it is being used to provide the young seedling with a supply of plant-available K for early uptake. Like P, soil K is often not available under the cold soil conditions common to seeding of spring cereals. The starter provides a supply of early season K to meet crop needs before the root system develops and accesses the soil K reserves.

Soil testing, use of starter K, and a number of related K management issues have been reviewed in a recent News & Views publication and PowerPoint slide set found on the PPI website. If K is part of your soil fertility planning, it will be useful information to help in building your knowledge base and making recommendations.

Moisture conditions across the region are generally good. The most recent Palmer Drought Index map shows only a small portion of south central Colorado in moderate drought conditions; the remainder of the six-state region is extremely moist to normal. Some areas, such as eastern Colorado, that have been in the drought category for extended periods are now normal or above in moisture.

Furthermore, the drought forecast from the climate prediction center shows the entire region as normal to extremely moist with no areas of drought. Producers and their advisers should consider the favorable moisture conditions and forecast when preparing fertility programs for summer crops.

Considering that soil moisture will likely be favorable over much of the region this spring, make sure that fertility does not limit early season growth and yield potential. This, of course, means making sure that all needed nutrients are supplied, including sufficient P and K. Also, keep in mind the potential benefits of starter fertilizer. Phosphorus, K, and other nutrients placed in a concentrated band near the seed at planting often result in early season response that translates to yield increases and greater profit in the production of corn, grain sorghum, and other crops.

A few of the potential benefits of starter are accelerated early plant development resulting in increased competition with weeds, decreased erosion due to quicker soil cover, reduced grain moisture at harvest, improved nutrient and water use efficiency, and increased yield and profit. Additionally, when planning 2005 fertilization, remember that the excellent yields over much of the region in 2004 removed more P and K than normal. The greater than normal depletion of soil P and K needs to be accounted for in this year’s programs.

Where wheat was planted on a timely basis it is, by and large, in good to excellent condition. Growers should consider N topdress application this spring to make the most out of the crop. Also, with conditions in some areas favorable for leaf rust and other foliar fungal diseases, Cl may be an important topdress ingredient this spring. Research has shown spring topdress of Cl fertilizer can significantly reduce infection of leaf rust in years of heavy pressure. The average yield response to Cl under these conditions is about 5 to 7 bu/A. The most common and readily available source of Cl fertilizer is muriate of potash (KCl).

The Southeast region generally experienced a very favorable production season, in spite of the onslaught of hurricanes that plagued Florida and parts of the east coast. Because of somewhat delayed planting of major field crops in part of the region, and wet weather that was experienced as the crop harvest season progressed, harvest was delayed beyond normal. Increased crop yields also resulted in a slow-down in harvest progress.

A critical issue in the Southeast is soybean Asian rust. As a result of the hurricane-delivered rust infection and very late season detection in nine southeastern states (click here for details), there is a tremendous educational effort underway by both the public and private sector to inform farmers of the fungicides available for control of the rust infection.

	http://www.aphis.usda.gov/ppq/ep/soybean_rust
	http://www.soygrowers.com/library/rust/rustconf.htm
	http://deltafarmpress.com/news/120804rust-outlook
	http://agriculture.tennessee.edu/news/releases/0411-soybeanrust.htm
	http://www.lsuagcenter.com/subjects/soybeanrust/economics.asp
	http://www.soybeanrustinfo.com/?engine=googleadwords
	http://www.ncpmc.org/NC504/Members.htm
	http://www.maicms.org/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=155
	http://ipm.ncsu.edu/current_ipm/palert47.html
	http://www.ncsoy.org/html/november_2004.htm

The U.S. soybean Asian rust issue is receiving top billing at winter educational meetings, and is causing farmers to re-think their soybean planting intentions in 2005. The additional production costs associated with the potential for one to two (and possibly more) fungicide applications is impacting other crop management budget decisions for 2005. Many soybean farmers are considering more early maturity groups (more MG III and IV as opposed to MG V) in parts of the southeast in hopes that an early maturing crop can escape rust infection that is most likely to occur later in the season, if hurricanes become rust spore delivery agents. An article on nutrient management considerations for soybeans with the potential for rust infection was prepared by PPI (Features at www.ppi-ppic.org).

Plant pathologists do not think the soybean Asian rust can survive harsh winters. So, it is possible that the rust found in locations across the southeast may not overwinter. However, much of the Midsouth and parts of the eastern portion of the Southeast region have had only one week of cold weather thus far this winter, and most recently…temperatures have exceeded the mid-70s, even in the northern reaches of the region.

The relatively mild summer, with lower nighttime temperatures, resulted in lower respiratory energy losses, less crop stress, and contributed to higher yields. For example, the Mississippi state crop forecast indicates average cotton lint yield at 1,034 lb/A, rice yield 6,900 lb/A, soybean at 38 bu/A. The most recent Arkansas ag statistics forecasts state averages at 1,112 lb cotton lint/A , corn yield at 140 bu/A, rice yield at 6,910 lb/A, soybean yield at 39.5 bu/A, and hay yields at 2.5 tons/A. Missouri forecasts its state average soybean yields at a record 46 bu/A, and corn, cotton, and rice yields were forecast to reach new state records at 159 bu/A, 960 lb/A, and 6,400 lb/A, respectively. In Alabama, the forecasts are: cotton, 729 lb lint/A; corn, 123 bu/A; soybeans, 35 bu/A; peanuts, 2,800 lb/A. However, in Georgia the crop forecasts are a little less bullish because of the effects of the hurricanes: cotton, 675 lb/A; soybean, 33 bu/A; corn, 130 bu/A; and peanuts, 3,000 lb/A.

Cotton lint quality (especially fiber length and micronaire) was generally much improved in the Southeast compared to past years as a consequence of the favorable weather. According to the Delta Farm Press rice report on December 20, 2004: "Arkansas yields are projected 210 pounds higher than last year, at 6,800 pounds; Mississippi yields, 100 pounds higher, at 6,900 pounds; and Missouri yields, 270 pounds higher, to 6,400 pounds. In Louisiana, weather reduced average yields by a projected 520 pounds from last year, to 5,350 pounds." However, these good rice yields were overshadowed by low crop prices, and dampened farmers' outlook.

According to the Florida Agricultural Statistics Service "The all orange forecast for Florida released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is reduced 6.0 million boxes to 162.0 million. This is four percent less than last month's forecast and 14 million boxes or eight percent less than the initial forecast in October of 176.0 million. If realized, this will be 80 million boxes or 33 percent less than harvested last season. The reductions are in the early- midseason-Navel portion, down two million to 84.0 million boxes and in the late (Valencia) portion now forecast at 78.0 million."

Because of the later summer crop harvest and weak crop prices, soft red winter wheat planting was down across much of the region. According to the Georgia Agricultural Statistics Service, "Soft Red Winter (SRW) area, at about 6.6 million acres, is down 19 percent from last year. Large acreage declines are recorded in most SRW growing States. Wet fall conditions prevented operators from planting all of the acreage that they normally would across much of the region. Missouri, Illinois, Ohio, West Virginia, and New Jersey are all at record low levels."Winter pastures are in fair to excellent condition across the region.

The most common questions and concerns among farmers, ag consultants, and fertilizer dealers this winter, regarding the spring fertilizer market include: concerns over increased fertilizer prices, the challenge of getting fertilizer demands met in the face of rising costs and reduced inventories, and the impact of soybean Asian rust on other crop planting intentions…and the potential for a very compressed purchasing, delivery and application spring season. Many experienced fertilizer dealers are saying this is the most unpredictable market in their memory.

Water Outlook:
It's still early to tell about water availability for the 2005 season. Recent storms have been beneficial for many of the western states, but one bad month, like the dry March of 2004, can change the supply outlook rapidly! Things can look good for most of the winter and then dry up quickly. But hopefully continued rain and snow will start to fill reservoirs again.

Southern California's largest water agency finalized a plan to buy $10 million in water from Sacramento Valley rice farmers. The deal is the second time in 3 years that farmers have agreed to sell some of their irrigation water to the Metropolitan Water District (MWD) of Southern California. Despite near-record rice yields last year, the flat commodity prices, and guaranteed cash payments for water have been tempting for some farmers. The MWD finalized options to buy 80,000 acre feet of water from Glenn-Colusa Irrigation District.

Grapes:
Prospects for San Joaquin Valley wine grapes and raisins are better following the 2004 harvest. Prices bottomed out several years ago, leading to many vineyards being removed in an attempt to equalize supply and demand. Thompson seedless grapes were selling for $200 per ton this year, compared with as little as $70 in 2002.

Production for the 2004 California crop of 5.5 million tons consists of 2.7 million tons of wine-type grapes, 2.0 million tons of raisin grapes, and 0.8 million tons of table grapes.

Raisin sales in 2004 cleared out much of reserve supplies for the first time in several years, leading to a more favorable outlook for 2005. Growers will likely implement new practices such as improved fertilization and water management on existing land, rather than expanding to more acreage.

Potatoes:
The potato industry continues to face significant challenges to remain profitable. The potato industry has suffered from foreign competition, low prices, and low-carb diet trends. However, the outlook appears to be promising as low-carb diets seemed to have peaked and serious discussions are underway to open new export opportunities. Fuel prices and electrical costs for irrigation pumping will continue to be concerns for the next season.

Specialty Crop Competitiveness Act:
President Bush signed landmark legislation in December 2004, revolutionizing federal funding for the nation's specialty crop industry. The act authorizes $54 million annually for 5 years to enhance competitiveness of each state's fresh produce crops, mostly through grants to the state departments of agriculture. It is expected that most of the money will be used for investment in specialized research programs, conservation education, consumer awareness, improved food inspection facilities, and similar activities. It is the first federal funding program for the fresh produce industry.

Milk:
Growth in milk production in western states continues to outstrip the national growth rate of 1%. Average milk production during the past year was up by 8% in Arizona, 5% in California, and 5% in Idaho. The rapid growth of the dairy industry in the West continues to fuel the growing demand for high quality alfalfa hay. Overseas shipments of alfalfa and other forages to several Asian countries also continue to be strong.

Almonds:
Demand continues to be amazingly strong for the California almond crop. Production continues to increase each year, while prices defy traditional agricultural economics of supply and prices. Average nut price in 2001 for nonpareil growers was $1.03 per pound, reaching $1.67 per pound in 2003, and over $2.50 per pound earlier in 2004. New almond orchards continue to be planted, replacing field crops, vineyards, and some tree fruit orchards.

Newer plantings are done on narrow tree spacings (22 by 18 foot spacing). Smaller trees come into production earlier and are easier to harvest. Nutrient management with closer tree spacing is still evolving. Many growers observe a relationship between fall-applied K and enhanced bloom the following spring- the critical period for getting a good crop.